Best bets in Week 8 at 1 p.m. ET include Patriots and Jets


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NFL odds and choices

pick or pick
Panthers +4.5 (to +3)
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1 p.m. Eastern time

Chris Raybon: Atlanta had a nice 6-1 against the ATS spread, but I’m not sure this team should put up a field goal here.

The market is clearly anchoring the Panthers to start PJ Walker, but that’s not the kind of alignment that tends to give him trouble.

Walker, like most quarterbacks, struggles when under pressure. His rating under pressure this year is just 39.6, which would rank near the bottom of the league if he had enough attempts to qualify. But that’s not much of a concern against the Hawks’ defense which generates pressure at a low league level with 12.7% of opponents withdrawing.

From a clean pocket, Walker’s rating was 114.6, which would be second in the league if he had enough attempts to qualify. And while most of the attention is focused on Tampa Bay’s offensive struggles in Carolina’s shock 21-3 win last week, we shouldn’t ignore what Walker did against box Defense ranked fifth in the overall DVOA and sixth against the pass: 16 for 22 (72.7%) for 177 yards (8.0 YPA) with two touchdowns and no Objections.

Carolina bet against Atlanta
Panthers +4 | hawks-4

Not only are the Hawks under pressure, but their covering ability has now been compromised with starting corners AJ Terrell (hamstring) and Casey Hayward (IR, shoulder) both missing this match. Per PFF, Hayward and Terrell combined to allow a completion rate of 62.7% and 7.97 yards per attempt—the rest of the defense allowed a completion rate of 79.5% and 8.47 yards per attempt. Even with Terrell and Hayward covering 25% of opposing goals this season, the Falcons still rank 32 in DVOA passing defense.

We also can’t ignore how the Panthers’ rear without Christian McCaffrey — against the Bucs’ 11th-ranked defense in a DVOA sprint — shook 176 yards and a landing day 26 He carries (6.77 yards per medium load). After firing off a 15-yard, 118-yard game, D’Onta Foreman should be able to eat against a defense ranked 26th in the DVOA against running.

The Panthers’ defense rate is better against running (13th place in the DVOA) than passing (22), and is ideal against attacking Hawks, which accounts for the fourth-lowest dash attempt (33.0) and the second-lowest pass attempt (21.4). For every soccer player, the Panthers defense ranks sixth in stuff rate (21%) and tied for 12th in strength allowable success rate (63%).

The Panthers should be able to contain not only the Hawks’ back field, but also Marcus Mariota, who averages 7.0 holders and 33.9 yards per game. Carolina’s 1.76 yards per carry allowed for opposing quarterbacks is the lowest mark in the NFL. The Panthers only allowed 21 yards on 10-gigs to Daniel Jones in Week 2 and 26 yards on 12 trips to Kyler Murray in Week 4.

The market tends to underestimate road dogs in low-total games that come out of a bad season, like this week’s Panthers.

According to our Action Labs data, the Road Dogs are +2.5 to +6.5 with a total game under 50 and out of a season in which they have won six or fewer games are 256-162-12 (63%) in the first 16 weeks of the season since 2006 Covered at a rate of 2.4 points.

The market tends to underestimate Walker, too.

In four career starts, Walker has been “a dog at a time.” He’s 3-1 ATS in those positions with three straight wins, edging out the points difference by an average of 20.4 points per game:

  • October 23, 2022 vs Tampa Bay: +13.5; won 21-3
  • October 16, 2022 in Los Angeles (rams): +10; lost 10–24
  • November 14, 2021 in Arizona: +7; beat 34-10
  • November 22, 2020 vs Detroit: +3; won 20-0

We have to get a lot of effort from this Panthers who will be confident after beating the Bucs, and be motivated not only because they entered Week 8 in a first-place match in NFC Southbut also because they’ve rallied behind interim coach Steve Wilkes, who they want to get full-time on.

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Cardinals +3.5 (+3)
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1 p.m. Eastern time

Chris Raybon: The perfect time to support the Cardinals is when DeAndre Hopkins is in good health and they get points on the way.

Let’s start with the Hopkins effect. Since the acquisition of Hopkins in 2020, the Cardinal has played 27 games with him and 13 games without him, and the contrast couldn’t be more stark:

  • Points per game: 27.9 with20.1 without (+7.8)
  • yards per pass attempt: 7.67 with6.28 without (+1.39)
  • net yards per lane: 6.84 with5.48 With youR (+1.36)
  • Score difference: +6.0 with-4.4 without (+10.4)
  • ATS winning percentage: 55.6% with46.2% without (+9.4%)
  • ATS differential: +3.4 with-4.4 without (+7.8)

In his first game in 2022, Hopkins captured 10 of 14 goals for 103 yards. It should feed on the DVOA’s running 31st Vikings defense against opposing #1 wide receivers. This is also an excellent match for Zach Ertz, with the Vikings also ranked last in the DVOA to tight ends.

When Murray isn’t feeding Hopkins and Erts, he envisions raising yards to the ground. The Vikings allow 5.32 yards per carry for opposing mediums (8th at most). Jalen Hurts posted an 11/57/2 dash streak against the Vikings in Week 2, and Justin Fields scored an 8/47/0 streak against them in Week 5.

Arizona vs Minnesota bet
Cardinals +3.5 | Vikings -3.5

With Hopkins back, the cards are again equipped to win a penalty shootout with Minnesota, but their defense matches well with the Vikings’ attack.

With two distinguished safes playing Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson over the top, the Cardinals average first in the DVOA against #1 wide receivers and third against #2 wide receivers, which is exactly what you want when facing a pass offense involving Justin Jefferson and Adam Thelin.

Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has fired the second highest rate in the league (36.7%), which could be a problem for Kirk Cousins, as his passer rating drops this season from 96.1 when not attacking to 68.2 when attacking. . And when he delivers Cousins ​​to Dalvin Cook, Arizona can battle him with a speed defense that is ranked sixth by the DVOA.

Besides the meltdowns late in the season, one of the defining features of Cardinals Cliff Kingsbury has been the tendency to play better on the road than at home. Under Kingsbury’s leadership, the Cardinals had only 11-17 (39%) at home, but 19-7-2 (73%) ATS at home, including 15-3-2 (83%) ATS as a road dog.

The Cardinals covered eight straights like road dogs dating back to the start of last season.

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pick or pick
under 40.5 (to 39)
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1 p.m. Eastern time

Chris Raybon: No matter which team has the ball in this match, it is the defense advantage. The Patriots defense is ninth in the DVOA and faces the 21st Jets attack, while the Jets’ defense is 10th in the DVOA and faces the Patriots’ attack of 23.

Despite its top ten ranking, the New England defense could be vulnerable to running, ranking 28th in the DVOA. However, the Jets’ ability to exploit this was compromised without Breece Hall, who tore the ACL against Bronco. Here are Hall’s efficiency measures compared to its alternatives:

  • Press Hall: 5.8 yards per load; 4.1 yards after connection; 51% success rate
  • Michael Carter: 3.4 YPC, 2.4 YACo, 45% success rate
  • James Robinson: 4.2 YPC, 2.7 YACo, 37% success rate

Without Hall, the Jets’ character would be in more fleeting, third, and long positions, which are very problematic in their attack. Since Zach Wilson’s return in Week 4, he’s averaged 7.6 yards in third, the sixth most in the league during that time—and a 29.4% third transfer rate at 28. When Wilson is under pressure, he’s His passing rate is only 12.7, and he shows he’s under quite a bit of pressure against the Patriots defense who ranked 12th in pressing average (23.6%).

New England v New York bet
Patriots -2.5 | +2.5 . planes

Wilson and Gates would not be able to exploit the Patriots in the same way that Justin Fields did.

First, Wilson averages only 1.7 YPA under pressure, while Fields averages 8.1. Fields are nearly four times more likely to take off and run, with a stampede rate under pressure of 27.3% compared to Wilson’s 7.1%. What’s more, the Patriots must be in some regression to the middle with regards to missed tackles. New England PFF charged with 12 misses Treat against Chicago, well above their average of 4.7 per game entering Monday football.

Whether it’s Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe, or both, the Patriots will face a solid Jets defense that ranks 10th in the DVOA against passing and 14th against runs.

The planes are ranked 11th in stress rate despite breaking out at the second lowest rate, showing how effective they can be at getting home with a four-man rush. This will cause problems in a New England passing game that is not designed to beat pressure or have extra defenders in coverage.

Mac Jones’ pass rating drops from 96.3 in clean pocket to 8.7 under pressure, and Zappe’s rating drops from 110.9 (clean) to 62.2 (under pressure). New England receivers average 9.4 yards per target against man coverage (5th), but 8.0 against area (19).

The Patriots will have to rely on their running game, which should continue on the trend that they are ranked 31st in seconds per game (30.28) and 27th in neutral pacing (32.28 seconds per game), for every outside player in soccer.

The Patriots have always been an under-the-road team, dating back to before Tom Brady left. According to our Action Labs data, the Patriots’ bottom road is 34-18 (65%) since 2016, covering an average of 3.5 points per game.

That includes a 5-1 mark in East Rutherford against Gates.

Quick Slip: Patriots Jets Under 40.5

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pick or pick
Chase Claypool Over 3.5 Receptions (-125, play to -150)
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1 p.m. Eastern time

Chris Raybon: Claypool has had at least four assists in five of seven games this season and is a good bet to make it 6 of 6 against Eagle’s most vulnerable defense in the hole.

According to Pro Football Focus, the perimeter angles of Eagles James Bradberry and Darius Slay allow reception once every 15.0 and 14.9 shots in coverage, respectively. Meanwhile, Avonte Maddox’s aperture angle allows for every 10.5 shots to be received in coverage. Maddox allows a catch rate of 83.3%, which is nearly double the catch rate of Bradberry and Slay combined (42.5%).

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