Bills vs Lions, Giants vs Cowboys, and Patriots vs Vikings picks


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Happy thanks everyone.

Before we get into my country PropsThere were two Thanksgiving specials that were special to me Kings that I want to cover.

Josh Allen is +240 to score the most passing yards On Thanksgiving, Gabe Davis hits +1,300 to lead the list receiving yards.

I suspect Davis is closer to +900 topping the receiving charts on Turkey Day. He has a wider range of results than most players, so you could argue that should be less.

Davis doesn’t need the size of other receivers to win this bet due to his big play ability. There is a scenario where he tops the list with something like 125 yards entering the last game of the night. If so, you can hedge Your bet is on Justin Jefferson receiving yards. If Jefferson goes to the 88.5 level the totalit is unlikely that anyone else will get past 125. If it goes between 89 and 124 yards, you win both bets.

The bet is on Allen going hand in hand with Davis. I’d say the fair price on the Allen is closer to +200.

With that out of the way, here are my favorite tools for all three Thanksgiving games.

Singletary is off a season-high 18 rush attempts last week vs Brown. This was the third time he had said this the total in 10 matches.

Against Cleveland, Singletary took advantage of Josh Allen recording season-lows in passing (197) and rushing (seven) yards. I think we’ll see him bounce back with a big enough match in the air and on the ground where he eats into Singletary’s workload.

We also saw second-round rookie James Cook score his best game of the season with 11 He carries for 86 rush yards. Singletary reigns supreme for two-minute scrolling and action, however Invoices Can continue to use Cook on early downs to keep the veteran fresh.

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Another thing that works against Singletary in this market is that it doesn’t get many attempts at third or fourth and short. The Invoices They have a guaranteed quarterback sneak as they line up Gabe Davis behind Allen, driving the QB forward.

There are also some sneaky guardrails on this bracket. if it was black They are able to keep him close, and that will force the Bills to put together a heavy passing game script.

If the Bills get a big lead, they tend to encapsulate Singletary and let Cook control the business. Buffalo may also want to finally get Nyheim Hines some reps on offense. Which rush attempts He will only have the help of this prop.

I’m projecting Singletary for roughly 12.5 rush attempts and would bet this to -140.

I can’t think of a better way to spend Thanksgiving than sweating it out on a Lawrence Kayger brace during dinner time (on the East Coast).

I think this prop offers sneaky value because giants They will likely be forced into a heavy passing game scenario as 10-point underdogs.

Daniel Jones lost his first target, Wan’Dale Robinson, for the rest of the season. This makes Darius Slayton the new wide receiver, although it is not known who will emerge as the No. 2 option.

Cager will continue to be giantsThe tight end started catching passes, even rookie running back Daniel Bellinger. Cager ran a track on 70% of Jones dropouts last week, and I expect to see similar use with Robinson out.

The Cowboys It generated the most pressure in the NFL this season. Jones targets his tight end 14% of the time into a clean pocket, but this rises to 19% when under pressure.

Cager is a former wide receiver turned tight end. He is 6-foot-5 and 220 lbs. It’s not there to stop him. Also, for what it’s worth, he’s ranked second receiving yards between tight ends in the preseason.

I’m dropping a Cager for about 19.5 yards here and I like the upside on its end.

Cousins ​​have struggled when faced with pressure this season. His yards per attempt drop from 7.1 with a clean pocket to 5.4 when under pressure. Still, it wasn’t surprising that Cousins ​​really struggled against Cowboys Because Dallas leads the league in compression rate.

Cousins ​​faces another tough test against A.J Patriots Defense, which ranks second in pressure rate. To make matters worse, left nail tackle Christian Darisot has already been ruled out.

As a result, I expect Minnesota To have a more conservative and tough game plan against New England.

The Patriots The offense may also struggle to place points, which helps reduce the chances of cousins ​​getting into a game script that sees Vikings Go heavy going and play from behind.

I expect this closer to 238.5 passing yards.

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